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The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Talebs landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we dont understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes.A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we dont know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the impossible.For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we dont know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark bookitself a black swan.Praise for Nassim Nicholas TalebThe most prophetic voice of all.GQPraise for The Black Swan[A book] that altered modern thinking.The Times (London)A masterpiece.Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long TailIdiosyncratically brilliant.Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles TimesThe Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.The Wall Street JournalHugely enjoyablecompelling . . . easy to dip into.Financial TimesEngaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.The New York Times Book Review The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto) The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto) (9781400063512) in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable he focuses on that most dismal of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Buy The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable he Incerto: Fooled by Randomness The Black Swan The The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable Incerto The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable Incerto The Black Witch An Introduction to Nassim Nicholas Talebs The Black Swan Best Ebook The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly New Book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto) New Book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto) The Black Swan (Taleb book) - Wikipedia The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a book by the essayist titled the Incerto and covers the following books: Antifragile (2012) The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the The Impact of the Highly Improbable Fragility" (Incerto) A black swan is a highly improbable event with The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable A black swan is a highly improbable event with The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto) A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by The Black Swan has 56937 Start by marking The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable as The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto PDF The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable READ ONLINE The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto) PDF The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto)
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